Yes I will echo the sentiments about Russia’s inflated opinion of its own military capability. From the little ‘research’ I did, I learned that most military personnel below the rank of Sergeant are conscripts. This is a serious shortcoming in my opinion vs a more advanced military like that of the UK, where, despite overall numbers being lower, all personnel are volunteers, so the level of professionalism isn’t at all comparable when it comes to operations. I kinda assumed Russia would be further along.
Fair point Peltz about the lingering visceral memory of the recent past. This will certainly introduce a bias, but a fair one at that.
To further characterise Russia, it seems as though it is struggling with an inferiority complex. Wanting to be European, but kind of isn’t. Wanting to be a major power, but kind of isn’t. Wanting a strong economy, but is an energy exporter only. Wanting to be a democracy, but openly admits it is an oligarchy. Wanting to appear militarily supreme, but fields far too many conscripts.
My view on the matter is very limited. Years ago I stopped consuming ‘news’ entirely and still refuse to listen/watch/read. Taking both sides of the story into account, Russia have a case (whether constructed or not) and what is remarkable is that the West is mostly powerless to react meaningfully (possibly given the nukes alone). Or perhaps (slightly more cynically) there is nothing to gain if they were to deploy a force to repel Russia. The spoils of that war for the West would be … nothing. Ukraine would remain Ukrainian. Western influence over Ukraine would continue. Russian territory would not be seized, and the Russian government would not be toppled / replaced.
What I will guess however is that Ukraine is filled to the brim with foreign special forces operating within, on behalf of Ukraine, but also clearly waging the war without actually doing so. I mean, it wouldn’t take much given how easily blended in foreign forces could be. They just need to make sure to avoid capture, which, against a conscript force I’m sure is controllable. I’m sure all sorts of SAS and SBS types are in there for instance and practically many other counties too.
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