So no doubt you've heard that war is in Europe. I was just wondering whether with the increasing number of NATO troops deployed to the eastern front have any of your friends or people you know ended up here?

No one I know. Horrible state of affairs, end up nearly in tears every time they have some sort of interview with someone over there, be it a soldier or someone simply hiding. And every time they mention Estonia I hope you don't end up involved somehow.

It's actually quite peaceful here. Local russians are keeping a low profile mostly. And behind the border is only a skeleton crew because the others are busy becoming one with the land in Ukraine.

In case you were unaware, humble bundle has a Ukraine bundle. Shiny and I purchased it, and I think we've convinced all our friends as well. When I bought in it was at about $3mill, but it appears to be up to $15mill at this point. It's worth it just for the games alone, in my opinion.

Ukraine Humble Bundle

Yeah cheap and a ton of games, it's been shared on quite a few communities I'm in. Definitely worth it, even if only 2 or 3 games are any good.

There were a number of games I was interested in, including Back4Blood, Quantum Break, Satisfactory... I could go on for a little while. Anyway, I think I convinced most of my day-to-day gaming buddies to pick it up as well. Looks like it's raised $18million at this point. That's pretty impressive.

I'm really impressed with the showing the Ukraine military has made. After they pretty much got steamrolled in Crimea, I was expecting this to be short. Instead the Russians are taking a serious beating. I just hope it doesn't escalate into nuclear/biological/chemical warfare.

I believe that the miscalculation on this one can only be described as 'godlike' (read that one in quake voice) by everyone involved. Just a small example is the 16 fully kitted ambulance vehicles sent by Estonian entrepreneurs and medical professionals. A month ago I would've called 1 vehicle a miracle-like event. And there's more, so much more, from so many countries.

Peltz, as an Estonian you will have a view point that is interesting to me.

Not that other folk don’t an interesting viewpoints, but I assume the following…

This may cause minor offence.

Satis the gunslinging Texan believes the Cold War was never really over, and Putin the communist must be stopped.
Ox the Belgian is an EU fuckboy, so hates Russia because Ukraine wants to submit to the Brussels Empire.
Pevil is a subservient English subject of her majesty, and so does whatever the queen and her main stream media say.
Derf is mostly English, somewhat Italian (almost insignificantly so) and views the world with a raised eyebrow.

So anyway, Peltz, what is your view? Taking both sides of the story I hear into account, Russia is playing geopolitical games (as all major powers do) because the West / Ukraine were also playing geopolitical games.

Pfft queen has never given me one of her horses so she can go to hell for all I care! I am too lazy to rebel though

After the fall of the Soviet Union, when Russian tanks rolled into Moscow and shot shells into government buildings, I had really hoped things would change. Unfortunately, they did not. I have no quarrel with the Russian people, just their leaders. In communist Russia, everyone is equal, but some people are more equal than others.

I'm nowhere smart enough or informed enough to make any such statement. If my time with you guys has taught me anything is that you are more awesome and complex to sum it up in one sentence.

I'm also not neutral on the matter of Russia. They committed mass deportation of Estonians to Siberia in cattle wagons. Thousands froze and starved to death on that slow torture ride. I wasn't even born then but every time I see the candles and events I can feel the inbuilt hate and rage. That kind of injustice leaves a mark. Estonia has been conquered by other nations (danes, swedes, germans...) but there are no records of such horrors as committed by the russians. Wherever the russians go, a scar the size of grand canyon appears. So from Geopolitical standpointto me, dismantling the russian federation would be one of the greatest achievements of mankind.

But most days i'm a person who looks to the future. And to me it seems that enslavement and fear is not the way forward, it's not something to build on. As an EU citizen I do not feel that my core being is in danger. At the core we believe in the same values. Sure the US and Brits and other nations/cultures have their influence but at the end of day there is no such thing as default Estonian/Brit/American.

I believe that at the core of Geopolitics is the pyramid of power. Let's say we have system of two people of different physical strength. That stronger person is on top of that pyramid of power (although it would be column of power with 2ppl but you get the idea). So the physically weaker invents a gun and strength becomes irrelevent. He is now on top. So now that physically stronger person invents a power-armor making the gun obsolete. He is now on top. Now the gunslinger monopolises energy (the thing that runs power-armor). He is now on top. Eventually the one on top is the one who monopolizes debt.

So that's how I see Geopolitics. Different parties doing stuff to be on top of that pyramid of power. As a person who carries the values of freedom, justice and rule of law I would no doubt like to see the "West" being on top. Keep in mind that no such thing as the "West" exists outside of media. But I also acknowledge the simple truth that it is cyclical in nature and It has to be.

As for Russia, they haven't been a geopolitical power for some time. It's all been lies and misinformation. Nor do they have the economic power to make meaningful impact. Russia reminds me those fake facebook profiles. You know its a bald fat dude in a basement.

But in this case it's an old bald fat dude in a basement sitting on a giant amount of nukes.

Anyway, I was also interested in Peltz' pov because while I'm sure Putin wouldn't have any qualms of attacking any other countries if he could, the arguments for attacking Estonia are theoretically very similar to those for attacking Ukraine: it's in Russia's historical sphere of influence and there is a Russian minority that needs to be 'liberated' or 'protected'. Even if Estonia is culturally more distinct from Russia than Ukraine of course (and more importantly, a member of NATO and the EU). But I imagine after what is happening now, even the parties with Russian sympathies in the Baltics will realize that perhaps they shouldn be careful what they wish for. You can already see it with some Eastern and Central European EU states who cuddled up to Russia in past years changing course.

Peltz is right that Russia isn't nearly the juggernaut it likes to think itself to be anymore. Their GDP is lower than most of the larger EU countries, and half their economy is based on exporting gas and oil. I think this invasion was partially gambling on the fact that Europe and the US would look away and let it happen in a similar way that they did with the annexation of Crimea and the fighting in Eastern Ukraine, and that didn't pan out exactly the way they thought it would. Like Peltz said, the solidarity in terms of support and welcoming of refugees has been overwhelming.

I'm not sure what to think of this war tbh. I guess Russia's plan A was to blitz and see if Ukraine's regime and defenses would immediately collapse à la Afghanistan, so they could install a puppet government and create a Lukashenko clone or something. But that plan seems more and more likely to have failed. So they're on to plan B: getting a firmer grasp on the Eastern provinces, legitimize their ownership of Crimea AND create a land corridor along the Black Sea coast from Russia to Crimea. Which is why they are pushing so hard to take Mariupol. Once they more or less control those areas, they can pretend that this is all they came for to begin with and negotiate a truce, saving face and looking victorious enough to sell it as victory.

The reality will of course be that no matter what Russia gets out of this war, they have fucked themselves for a long time to come. If even Sweden and Finland are considering joining NATO you know you dun goofed. I just hope that they don't become so isolated and desperate that they become a completely warped ideological bunker state where the craziest shit might happen - North Korea but with way more nukes. Any peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine will need to include some very basic guarantees for a path back into the international fold for Russia. We shouldn't forgive, but we also can't put them so far with their backs against the wall that they go completely insane.

(by the by, another legimitate pov here is that this war is less about all the things Putin talks about - NATO encroachment, Russians being discriminated, historical claims etc - and more about the vast gas fields in the Black Sea off the Ukrainian coast)

I always find it funny when russian politicians or media says the west is about attack and take russias resources. I mean if you look at this from a logistical and cost/benefit point of view, there is no scenario for any country in the world where it would be cheaper than to just buy the stuff from russia.

As for attacking Estonia, It would always be simultaneous attack on all three. The baltic countries are so small its impossible to make use of all the troops and machines they have if the target would be any one of the baltic countries. And there's a huge lake separating our borders as well.

Luckily our language is soo different and our history so well documented that no bullshit "historic russian claim" can fly, well at least in any civilized country. Russian Federation citizens however live in a different dimension than the rest of world so anything is possible there. It's quite possible that Ox is Putin's long lost son in that dimension. .

Yes I will echo the sentiments about Russia’s inflated opinion of its own military capability. From the little ‘research’ I did, I learned that most military personnel below the rank of Sergeant are conscripts. This is a serious shortcoming in my opinion vs a more advanced military like that of the UK, where, despite overall numbers being lower, all personnel are volunteers, so the level of professionalism isn’t at all comparable when it comes to operations. I kinda assumed Russia would be further along.

Fair point Peltz about the lingering visceral memory of the recent past. This will certainly introduce a bias, but a fair one at that.

To further characterise Russia, it seems as though it is struggling with an inferiority complex. Wanting to be European, but kind of isn’t. Wanting to be a major power, but kind of isn’t. Wanting a strong economy, but is an energy exporter only. Wanting to be a democracy, but openly admits it is an oligarchy. Wanting to appear militarily supreme, but fields far too many conscripts.

My view on the matter is very limited. Years ago I stopped consuming ‘news’ entirely and still refuse to listen/watch/read. Taking both sides of the story into account, Russia have a case (whether constructed or not) and what is remarkable is that the West is mostly powerless to react meaningfully (possibly given the nukes alone). Or perhaps (slightly more cynically) there is nothing to gain if they were to deploy a force to repel Russia. The spoils of that war for the West would be … nothing. Ukraine would remain Ukrainian. Western influence over Ukraine would continue. Russian territory would not be seized, and the Russian government would not be toppled / replaced.

What I will guess however is that Ukraine is filled to the brim with foreign special forces operating within, on behalf of Ukraine, but also clearly waging the war without actually doing so. I mean, it wouldn’t take much given how easily blended in foreign forces could be. They just need to make sure to avoid capture, which, against a conscript force I’m sure is controllable. I’m sure all sorts of SAS and SBS types are in there for instance and practically many other counties too.

Well for the US, every dollar spent on Ukraine is a dollar not spent on combating China's influence. So in that regard a quick resolve is in their interest which can turn into a peace treaty with some bullshit in it.

The special forces have been there since 2014. It's no secret. But they wont be running any attack missions or such. They're probably running security for the hundreds of military instructors and engineers currently in Ukraine. There are videos out there where vehicle mounted weapons have been converted to portable systems with parts that have been designed for this conflict specifics. This not something an average car mechanic whips up on a Sunday. Also the weapon systems we send, there is no way some random Vladymyr is going to become proficient with them by figuring shit out on the go.