So yeah, pretty shitty times with this virus spreading all over Europe (thanks, Italy) and now popping up in the US as well.

It doesn't seem likely that it will gravely affect one of us, being relatively young and in halfway decent condition, but still. Kinda worried for my folks who are a bit older (and my mom's a smoker).

I'm in a pretty good situation when it comes to infection risk: I don't commute into an office and I don't have kids or a gf (or even pets) so I can pretty much entirely manage my risk if I really wanted to. Barring the occasional weirdo coughing in my face on a supermarket trip. I toned down my use of public transport a bit but otherwise I've done the same stuff I always do but I'm more conscious about touching my face or washing my hands than usual. I also built up a 2-3 week buffer of canned and dry foods just in case. I'm not so much worried about the virus as the public's reaction to it - even if you're not worried about catching the damn thing it's still pretty shit if some panicking folks cleaned out the shelves before you. So now I just need a gun to protect my hoard.

Anyway, let's hope this thing clears up as spring and summer roll in, as is common with respiratory diseases. What about you guys? Are you in any specific "hot zones"? So far this region of France has largely been spared.

Haha, so accurate.

Also funny that i was reading your text, thinking "all he needs now is a gun" and then reading the exact same thing from you.

Not that worried myself, basically it's a flu so meh.

I'm mildly more worried than I was about swine or bird flu, but I was fighting fit then. I'm now in the immune compromised group but still not really worried. I mean ok I'm more at risk but having been so ill I basically don't go out other than to visit a friend Saturday evenings for gaming, or for hospital appointments. I'm starting back at work on Mon but again partly due to how long I've been off and because our office has just moved last week to a place that's too awkward to get to on public transport, I'll be working from home. Only risk there is it's all new systems so my friend is having to come to teach me and she has 2 small kids (and we know what germ factories they are) but she wouldn't put me at risk I hope, so if there's illness we should screenshare instead.

We do have 1 case in Birmingham that I know of and 2 in Coventry (both quite close to me) but really not freaking me out. If it's still ongoing in August I may have to evaluate things; I'm going to the Discworld Convention but if there's a chance we'll get infected people showing up I might have to skip it.

Frankly Niall is more likely to get it than me. Even with active Cushing's I managed to avoid most colds and he'd come home from work sneezing and coughing most of the year round! Mildly worried about my parents as they're in their 70s but they're also damn fit for their age and I think their part of France is fairly ok too, and hopefully will stay like that as it's very rural so not huge crowds of people around to infect everyone else.

Things are starting to get more serious, I think the main problem is that the basic precautions (as in washing hands, avoiding contact, ...) aren't followed well enough.
My brother was going to America, goes that's not happening anymore with Trump banning everyone from EU.

Yeah, it's revving up...

- Entire of Italy on lockdown, only thing open are food shops and pharmacies basically
- Denmark and Norway announced similar lockdowns today
- US suspended all flights from the EU, or more precisely the schengen area

I'm sure the measures in countries like France, Spain, Germany, Belgium and the UK will soon increase as well. Unless contained properly the virus growth seems to be exponential. And measures like the ones in Italy will only be effective if they are maintained for a few weeks, given the incubation and recovery period.

Ideally you'd take these measures before you have a massive internally spreading population, but that doesn't align with economic interests so....most countries were much too late to restrict travel to Italy.

I think at this point we can only slow down the infection rate in order to not overwhelm hospitals and pray for a hot summer to arrive soon. It won't kill off the virus but it might curb transmission somewhat.

Just hope my parents get though safely, or hang in there until there is a vaccine or treatment.

I think a hot summer will make it worse. Hot weather with AC cooling will cause a hot, cold, hot, cold cycle to which even the mightiest eventually fall. And then we have sneezing and coughing people everywhere. Plus coping with hot weather will put even more strain on the body.

PS! The only true question left is - How is Madagascar faring

No reported cases from Madagascar yet...and they just suspended all flights from Europe. This is beginning to look more and more like a Plague Inc. games.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21114U



But on a more serious note, things are going sideways. Italy has been on lockdown for a week now, and France, Belgium, Germany and Spain just did the same thing. Infection rates are still rising rapidly in Italy despite the lockdown which is bizarre, but with the incubation period there is obviously a delay on the effectiveness. What angers me more is that other countries like France and Spain who already had a few k cases dragged their feet on announcing stricter measures, when Italy has been telling them for weeks now "guys, don't make the same mistakes we did". Idiots.

Anyway now things are looking to really explode here I'm going into further self-quarantine. Gonna make a walk in the park every day but that's it. No more shopping trips for a week or two, I got plenty of food here anyway. I may check out an online shopping thing where I can pick up food straight from the delivery point without even entering a supermarket, see if it's a viable alternative. My only concern is that one of my parents may get sick. My mom is a heavy smoker.

Chatting to my parents today and they said France is now on lockdown. Over 70s (i.e. them) aren't supposed to go out at all and everywhere that isn't necessary is to be closed, so pretty much everything bar supermarkets and pharmacies. I'm still not overly worried but I'm not gonna go out unless I have to methinks. No point pushing my luck just for the sake of it.

Yeah France is basically on lockdown as is Belgium (and Holland and ...). All bars/restaurants/entertainment closed. Schools here are only open to keep an eye on children where the parents can't work from home for instance.

From what i'm reading, UK governement isn't taking the necessary strict measures while about 200 scientists said they should. So that doesn't bode too well. It seems it's a bit of a similar problem everywhere: governement saying "it's okay, we got this, it isn't that bad" and after a while gradually implementing stricter and stricter measures. You'd think they'd learn from the other countries.

This was interesting to read: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... h-t8ufounc

I'm mixed now on my opinon! First of all I would like to state I think the UK government is comprised of morons.

However, my friend showed me a YouTube video today that explains things. I have no clue who the guy is doing the video, he might be biased, he might not. He basically has a big bucket of water to represent the whole population. He has a bottle with a small hole near the bottom that represents the NHS. He shows us that if we allow people to steadily get the infection, we steadily fill up the NHS (the bottle) and the slow trickle out the hole is people getting better. As it gets near the top of the bottle, that's when we go into lock down. When the NHS has emptied again, we can reopen and hopefully will never fill up again. If we lockdown instantly it looks great, except when we then open back up/people get fed up of months of isolation and go out anyway, we suddenly all get infected in one big swoop and the NHS overflows = people die.

How true it is, I dunno. Could be total bullshit. But I can sort of see where this guy is coming from. But I also think people should stop being selfish and suck up having to be isolated for a bit. One of my friends is whining because he has ordered the super duper limited edition of Final Fantasy 7 and Royal Mail are now making changes to their doorstep deliveries. Big deal, you've waited 20 years for this remake, you can wait a few more weeks so that someones life isn't put in danger by continuing deliveries as they currently are!

Which other countries are full of morons stocking up on toilet roll and acting like we're gonna have nothing for 3 years?

The link in my previous post explains it as well, the key to have the disease spread slowly ("flatten the curve") is social distancing. I really recommend checking the article out, and watch the difference between the 4 curves. I think curve nr. 2 is the hard quarantine model for a certain number of people.

Just read the article, great way to explain it. Graphics and particularly simulations like that help to understand the reasons behind things. UK just upped our lock down status in the time between these posts anyway.

Just to lighten the situation:

UK Virus ALERT!

The English are feeling the pinch in relation to the recent virus threat and have therefore raised their threat level from “Miffed” to “Peeved.” Soon, though, the level may be raised yet again to “Irritated” or even “A Bit Cross.”

The English have not been “A Bit Cross” since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out.

The virus has been re-categorized from “Tiresome” to “A Bloody Nuisance.” The last time the British issued a “Bloody Nuisance” warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada.

The Scots have raised their threat level from “Pissed Off” to “Let's Get the Bastard.” They don't have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years.

The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its alert level from “Run” to “Hide.” The only two higher levels in France are “Collaborate” and “Surrender.” The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France's white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the country's military capability.

Italy has increased the alert level from “Shout Loudly and Excitedly” to “Elaborate Military Posturing.” Two more levels remain: “Ineffective Combat Operations” and “Change Sides.”

The Germans have increased their alert state from “Disdainful Arrogance” to “Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs.” They also have two higher levels: “Invade a Neighbour” and “Lose.”

Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat they are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels.

The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy. These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms so the new Spanish navy can get a really good look at the old Spanish navy.

Australia, meanwhile, has raised its alert level from “No worries” to “She'll be alright, Mate.” Two more escalation levels remain: “Crikey! I think we'll need to cancel the barbie this weekend!” and “The barbie is cancelled.” So far, no situation has ever warranted use of the final escalation level.

Another interesting read. Not wanting to scare our English speaking friends here, but from what i'm reading and hearing is that both UK and US aren't taking the necessary measures. I also read that in Italy people aren't even staying in quarantine. Sigh.

article: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... 9337092b56

*edit: things like this make me very angry now, look at other countries, learn from their mistakes and let the people know that it IS an actual threat. I blame our governement for having that attitude at first as well, untill shit went down in Italy. He might learn the hard way with his attitude: https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... s-possible

I think most regular people don't understand exponential growth very well (at all) and therefore resist measures before the situation is already well beyond desperate. They go outside and see "it looks pretty normal to me, what are people so worried about". As a mathematician you of course have a much better understanding of it. So I can understand why it infuriates you more than others.

Even the (Northern) Italians, normally not exactly known for their love of rules and social distancing, are now observing the measures more and more according to my boss who lives in Milan. He said it took several weeks but it's finally starting to seep in with the majority of people. But they are of course already well fucked. So much too late.

And in addition to that blindness there is the government, which tends to err on the side of not harming the economy until it has no other choice, because they are in bed with wall street and their ilk. It's not a great combo.

I also noticed that a lot of the numbers we have are clearly incomplete or false, as they don't add up. For example, Austria has the same amount of reported cases as Belgium, but their mortality rate and intensive care patients are about 10 times as low. That doesn't make any sense considering the health care in both countries isn't on a widely different level. The more obvious explanation is that the Belgian infection is much more widely spread but not recorded or traced as well.

There is more and more evidence that a large number of the infected persons are completely to largely asymptomatic btw. Up to 50-70% in some studies. That's pretty impressive. It's comforting and scary at the same time - the actual mortality rate is probably a lot lower than the reported 3.4%, but it also makes it much harder to identify and contain the disease and protect those most at risk. But I don't think anyone still thought that was possible (containment).

Yeah i think numbers are very incomplete at best, the most important to look at is not number of infected (because not everyone gets tested at all) or not even mortality. The most important thing to know is how many infected end up in intensive care (ICU). Because if that number gets too high, your health system collapses and you end up with a lot of people dying because there aren't any beds. Like in Italy. I can't imagine how it is if you have to decide who to help based on patient x and y having this or that % chance on survival. Horror.