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Minor Diety
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Post Brexit
So the UK is voting in a referendum to leave the EU soon. What do you think the result will be?

I'm fairly sure the referendum will be a "no to the EU". For two reasons:

- The historical animosity from the UK towards "Brussels" and the EU. A lot of people in the UK still believe they can are living in the Great British Empire and that they shouldn't be 'dictated' by foreigners. This has very little to do with rational reason for or against, it's mostly an emotional reflex.

- In referendums there are 3 groups: the passionate NO group, the group who doesn't give a shit either way or at the very least is for the status quo, and the passionate YES group. Since the middle group doesn't vote and the NO group (due to the aforementioned emotional and historical reasons) is imho going to be bigger than the YES one, I think the referendum will go their way.

While I am not blind to the faults of the EU (there are a lot of good points in the brexit camp), I think actually leaving the Union would be a big mistake. This is not the 19th century, Britain can't go at it alone anymore. What they should have done is use the referendum as leverage to strengthen their position within the Union, but Cameron already fucked that option up by saying he would leave the Union if the outcome of the referendum is negative. So now he has to hope for a narrow YES win and use that as his leverage.

I think referendums are a terrible way of going about these things. A very complex issue with many consequences is being presented as a simple yes-no choice, which is of course ideal for swaying Joe Sixpack and his uninformed emotional opinions. Not to mention that they usually forgo a large group who are tacitly for the status quo (in this case, not leaving) but can't be bothered enough to vote. So I dunno.

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Sun May 22, 2016 2:06 am
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Post Re: Brexit
I'm kinda hoping they say yes to exit. While economically it makes no sense, the monstrosity that is EU today needs to die so badly. EU is a management task but it is in direct violation when it comes to good management practice. Starting with the problem that absolutely no one can be held responsible for the actions and decisions made in brussels. In addition brussels already considers eu as a federation which it most definitely is not. Then there's the problem that the power center is isolated from the environment they decide matters for.

And then there's the crisis management. The kind of shit they pull off can not be found in any crisis management theory. It seems to me that maintaining the state of crisis is the purpose of their actions. Then there's the delegation of power. All good management practices have a very good delegation of rights, obligations and responsibility. EU seems to be going in the exact opposite direction. They want to regulate everything, from the tires you use for your car to the stupidity of forcing to accept completely ill fit religions and values of illegal immigrants.

In conclusion, the sooner this monster dies, the sooner the construction of a better one can begin.

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Mon May 23, 2016 2:37 am
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Felix Rex
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Post Re: Brexit
I think Brexit is a mistake, but I have no idea how it's going to go. I'm not a fan of Britain and most of its policies lately... foreign policies, treatment of refugees / foreigners, spying proclivities, etc. In many ways, I think they're worse than my own country, and that's saying something. On the other hand, the EU seems like a massive juggernaut of bureaucracy.

I think it would be in everyone's best interests if they just revisited the structure of the whole EU thing and maybe even redesign it to be a little more agile and a little easier to improve over time. Most bureaucracies seem to be impossible to fix. I have no idea how this would be accomplished. That is not my area of expertise.

However, I think actually going through with Brexit would have serious economic repercussions. But who knows. If it does happen, it should at least be entertaining. With any luck, if the economy does crash and doesn't take the US with it, it should be a lot easier for me to afford to come visit. :mrgreen:

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Mon May 23, 2016 7:24 am
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Post Re: Brexit
*uncle Derf puts his political cap on*

For me, the referendum was conjured as a piece of electioneering, and deployed as a smoke-screen.

Before the last general election, the Conservative party were in a position where they were losing many votes to a new party called UKIP, which are essentially an anti-EU party (and not much more). Most of the people who vote UKIP are ex Conservative voters. UKIP did very well in the last general election, and got 11% of the vote, so they're a real electoral threat to the Conservatives. The Conservatives have always known this, so before the election, Cameron promised an EU referendum if they won power. It's a bit odd to promise such a thing because he himself believes staying in is the best thing. So why call a referendum if what you want exists already, and there is no risk of that changing? The answer is, electioneering. By promising a referendum, he intended to persuade fewer Conservative voters to abandon ship, and it worked. The Conservatives won power by a tiny majority, so without this reptilian piece of social engineering, we wouldn't have had the asshat government that we have today. All of this is called electioneering.

Secondly, it's a valuable smoke-screen. The government had just published its budget, and it had been discredited widely, to the extent its major policies were abandoned. Government targets on debt, deficit, and immigration reduction are being woefully missed. The NHS is being sabotaged to justify its privatisation (Conservative ideology is pretty much "free-market as much as possible"). School standards are suffering nationwide. On top of this, socio-economic inequality is rising, electoral reform is needed, parliamentary reform is needed, constitutional reform is needed, democratic reform is needed, austerity is failing, and neo-imperialism is persisting unchecked and unaccounted for. Yet, what are we discussing? What is on the news? What is the topic du jour? What are we all focused on? EU membership. We have no conclusive evidence on this subject, so no one is qualified to vote. I am most likely going to abstain. The Treasury department ITSELF published a leaflet to the entire population outlining the pro's and con's. On one side, it claimed EU membership secures £90bn of annual income. On the other side, it claimed the EU costs £250m a week to be part of. DOES NOT COMPUTE. This, my friends, is a smoke screen, deployed as a wildcard at a time of his choosing.

I am indifferent. On one side, we remove ourselves from a fundamentally undemocratic institution. On the other side, we maintain our trading arrangements and potentially avoid plunging the national economy into an abyss. There are NO plans outlined for the trading arrangements post-exit. It's all amateurish politics. Constructed for the sole purpose of preserving electability.

@ Satis - Lol, I doubt very much that the UK is worse than the US when it comes to spying and foreign policy. The US has ample contemporary history of being #1 at the neo-colonial game. Also, while it might appear a valid option to reform the EU, the fact that it's fundamentally undemocratic prevents us from doing so as far as I understand.

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Wed May 25, 2016 7:27 am
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Post Re: Brexit
That was a very interesting post Derf, and I agree with pretty much everything you wrote.

The entire thing is a short-sighted affair fueled by opportunism, emotionality and ignorance. No one really knows why they should leave other than "Brussels sucks" because no one really knows what the economic and political impact would be. And few people seem to even care, instead they are throwing around arguments for and against that are all about 'feelings' and 'morality' and 'history'.

Cameron has also been working hard in the past few weeks on strongarming the EU into some further special treatment for the UK, using the referendum as his leverage. It's a pretty tricky game, as he risks both alienating the EU partners completely and that the voters actually vote for a brexit.

I think the most obvious thing anyway can take away from this is that the EU's executive process needs to be reformed. Less power for the commission, more power for the parliament (which is directly elected) and the council of ministers (which consists of elected local officials). The criticism that the EU is not a democratic institution is not always fair though - the composition of the commission is not entirely dissimilar to that of a minister cabinet in national politics. In both cases the biggest party (parties) choose to invest a certain amount of executive power in a particular official that was elected into parliament by the people. But there is a lot of work that remains on making the actual lawmaking process more 'democratic'. The most obvious solution is to give the European Parliament more weight, an evolution that has been going on for the last few years. But I still think we should have general 'European' elections for the highest ranking offices like the President of the Council and the High Representative.

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Sun May 29, 2016 6:53 am
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Post Re: Brexit
Not long to go now, and I think i've formed a decision.

All of the arguments to remain appear weak, irrelevant or incohesive.

Pro Remain
1. The EU bought peace to Europe. No, that was the cold war, NATO, and the common interest between European governments to focus on the "enemy" of the time, which was the USSR. The EU was a trading platform that may very well have nurtured greater collaboration and diplomacy between European countries, but that would have had a minor effect versus the bonding required to face a "nuclear war".
2. The EU brings peace to Europe.. Upon which basis of evidence? If the affirmation is based on the incorrect assumption from point 1 above, then this point is defective by nature. The world has changed. There is far more integration between European people now thanks to factors that have nothing to do with the EU. For instance, advances in air travel, advances is communication technology, the rise of multinational corporations.
3. Cameron will be forced to resign, and we will be left with an even more sociopathic leader and chancellor. How much worse can it be (until 2020)? Cameron is a proven pathological liar, so too the chancellor. They promised no rise in VAT, it did. They promised no NHR restructure, they are. They've forced academisation of schools. Austerity has failed, and revealed as an ideological choice. Immigration targets have been significantly missed. EU renegotiations have been utterly fruitless. Wealth inequality is increasing. No over-arching economic growth strategy has been implemented. The national debt is increasing, and targets to reduce it have been missed woefully. Cameron leaving may be a good thing for the UK, because if he's replaced by someone worse, this might mobilise people to call for an early general election, to be entirely rid of this Conservative government that has so learly failed in almost every major aspect of governance.
4. Recession. Shallow recession (~1%) for two quarters has been predicted, and is an entirely acceptable price to pay. Secondly, a recession may not occur at all, if the government chooses to counter-act it with planned cuts to corporation tax (assurance and attraction of investors), or cutting interest rates.
5. No more tariff-free trade within the EU. The UK exports more to the EU than what it imports. The UK trades more outside the EU, than within, and according to statistics, the rate of trade with the EU is decreasing since around 2011. The issue is therefore relatively limited. Nevertheless, the EU is unlikely to impose a tariff on itself for British goods (why would you?). The UK is unlikely to impose tariffs on itself for EU goods (why would you?). Secondly, if some tariffs are imposed, this can convince the domestic economy to become more self-sufficient, and could resolve in turn some unemployment issues we currently face.
6. We can change the EU. How do you make democratic what is fundamentally undemocratic? Cameron tried to negotiate very minor reforms, and failed resoundingly.
7. It's not perfect, but neither is our own political system. Is so clearly redundant and apathetic, I will refrain from spending the time to argue against this one. Anti-progressivist ignorance, that is dangerous and irresponsible.
8. EU legislature has made tangible improvements to every day life. Oh, yes, that's right. Beach quality, and product safety. Because we had problems with that before, right? No. As far as I'm aware we did not. Cheaper mobile calls within the EU? For the amount of times I actually go the EU for holiday, that's negligible. Made negligible even more that nowadays I would use this magical invention called WIFI for communicating with people back home, FOR FREE!
9. Some areas of the UK have had subsidies from the EU. Yet at the same time we subsidise the EU £350m on a weekly basis. You could argue we have the money in the first place.

Pro Exit
1. Democracy. Our own political system is insufficiently democratic, so why would we tolerate one that is even worse, and crucially, far more complicated. I mean, someone clearly explain to me how the EU works and I will Paypal you 50 Euro. Technology has the opportunity to leverage the populace into a a gradually more educated and informed one. I hope that within a few generations we can be rid of the people and systems that "represent" us by starting wars that butcher millions of people, or are seemingly by nature compulsive liars and electioneers that care little for most people. The EU is fundamentally an undemocratic representative institution that contradicts a movement that may very be required within a generation or two. It is an obstacle.

There are a number of other points for pro-exit, but, to be honest, I don't feel it's necessary to express them, as already the one I noted above outweighs the Remain arguments already.

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Tue Jun 14, 2016 4:05 am
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Post Re: Brexit
So now a (leave) loonie has shot and killed a (remain) MP. Tragic.

One wonders what effect this could have on the campaign. Of course, there is a definite crossover between the hardcore brexit supporters and the conspiracy theorists/emotional nationalists, who have already started calling this a false flag operation. :roll: Tragic as it may be, one shouldn't have their vote influenced by an incident like this anyway (even in the ridiculous event that it was a false flag). The actions of a single madman really don't matter for the actual issues being voted for, in this case. I highly doubt a civil war will break out after a brexit in which remain supporters will be killed off or bullied.

Anyway, sucks for the lady and her family. :( One moment you're doing some local campaigning, the next a crazypants idiot shoots and stabs you because of your opinions. Same sort of madness as the terrorism we've seen recently.

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Fri Jun 17, 2016 11:30 am
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Felix Rex
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Post Re: Brexit
I'm always sad when an attractive woman dies. :(

Image

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Sat Jun 18, 2016 10:39 pm
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Post Re: Brexit
http://www.lbc.co.uk/jamess-monologue-o ... ten-132384

Funny how this act isn't called "terrorism" by the media. :roll: Guess you need to have a tan for that.

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Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:24 pm
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Post Re: Brexit
Largely inconsequential event in my personal opinion, from a political perspective. If the masses think differently, i wouldn't be surprised, but there's no way to measure this, so I can't really comment anymore other than just point out that a lone crazed gunman, is just that, rather than some kind of popular ambassador to the system, which i'm sure he thought he was.

Anyway, i've posted my vote. The arguments to remain continued to be universally weak, so, although I recognise that this referendum was called for electioneering purposes, from an arbitrary viewpoint, my logical conclusion is that an exit would probably benefit the UK in the long term, more than a remain.

I saw Cameron debate the case for Remain in front of a public audience last night, but all of the arguments were merely of anecdotal and rhetorical weighting, with nothing that i haven't heard before. On top of that, he was being Cameron. Which means diverting the questions away, to a point that favours him, waffling until the audience have forgotten what the question was because they're trying to follow what he's saying. It's a disgusting tactic, deployed often by the likes of O'Reilly.

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Mon Jun 20, 2016 3:12 am
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Post Re: Brexit
derf wrote:
Largely inconsequential event in my personal opinion, from a political perspective. If the masses think differently, i wouldn't be surprised, but there's no way to measure this, so I can't really comment anymore other than just point out that a lone crazed gunman, is just that, rather than some kind of popular ambassador to the system, which i'm sure he thought he was.


Oh, I agree. I do however think that this is partially a consequence of the us vs them, black-and-white and generally hateful debate, which is being pushed by a part of the leave movement (namely the far-right and UKIP corner). Just like some muslim kids are pushed to terrorism due to propaganda and brainwashing efforts from extremist hate groups.

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Mon Jun 20, 2016 4:01 am
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Post Re: Brexit
Agreed. Rhetoric and propaganda is unfortunately a very powerful tool. It may have pushed him over the edge, I don't doubt that. Unstable people are pushed over this same edge for many different reasons. Some touch their nerves, some don't. Do those that publish propaganda have responsibility? I think they do. Though, this kind of stuff has been going on literally for millennia so id urge people to be unsurprised, and rather do something about it. I know I don't need to tell you this, ox. :)

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Mon Jun 20, 2016 5:39 am
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Post Re: Brexit
Yeah, it's a thing of all ages. It's just funny to me that the same people who have been condemning/accusing whole groups of people in one fell stroke are now hastily saying "oh no no this has nothing to do with us, this is just one crazy person. Don't point your finger at us.". Funny and a bit sad.

I wish your server was up during the day so I could transfer some items man. :P Or do some building. I got plenty of time these days (waiting for a full time freelance assignment to take off).

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Mon Jun 20, 2016 6:24 am
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Post Re: Brexit
I could setup a server I guess. Do you know already by chance how? I think I googled a while back and spotted that all you need to do is fire up the game from the server exe.

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Mon Jun 20, 2016 9:18 am
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Post Re: Brexit
I've done it in the past for the CK peeps but not sure. Nevermind though, I just powered through most of the stages that were required to be halfway useful in hardmode. Got the best pre-hardmode gear, weapons, tons of supplies and potions, nifty gadgets and whatnot. I'm ready. :)

Anyway...I'll use the other thread in the future. :D

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Mon Jun 20, 2016 9:39 am
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